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Writer's pictureGeoff Greenwood

DNA Analysis, Part 8 - Theoretical Genealogy

In describing the methods used and putting the structure in place for Elder's genealogy, I looked exclusively at their paternal side. Previously, from the records, it had been relatively easy (pun intended) to extend their ancestry four generations or more, thanks to a rare surname and only a small amount of movement between neighbouring parishes across the English Midlands. DNA links to 17 living individuals were confirmed, as well as direct ancestry to all four GGs and six out of eight 2GGs.


From the clustering exercise, it can be seen that there are now 142 of the 489 substantial DNA links linked via cluster #2 (the paternal side). Linking the remaining 347 individuals into the tree should, in the main, be a simple task. I would expect that this would reinforce all eight 2GGs with DNA links, mostly all 3GGs and even a couple of 4GGs. However, I recommend going broad before going deep and, as such, taking a look at the other supercluster (#1; 134 individuals) which more than likely, due to its size and the proliferation of Irish names, are Elder's maternal connections.


Belfast City Hall

As mentioned at the very start of this blog, I didn't have much past Elder's mother's name to be going on with. I was able to order up her marriage certificate to find out her father's name, Patrick Joseph Carberry, and I knew her birth date and place from Elder - Belfast, 1922.


GRONI, the General Register Office of Northern Ireland happily supply an online index to births over a hundred years old. Impressively, the indices to these seem to be updated on a monthly basis so that right now, toward the end of March 2022, you can view births registered in February 1922. The registration district, full date of birth and, possibly most importantly, the child's mother's maiden name is given in the index without the need to order certificates. However, Elder's mother was born in September 1922, so my choice seems to be to put this project on hold for six months, or continue researching elsewhere. One further piece of information I had was the name of Elder's maternal aunt. Fortunately, knowing the city in which she was married, I was able to find the index entry for her 1947 marriage. Unfortunately, there was little further information to be gleaned, as I couldn't ascertain a death and hence birth date for her. However, upon ordering the certificate, I was provided with her age at marriage, as well as confirmation of her father's name. That enabled be to search GRONI for her birth record. Initially, this didn't show up under 'Carberry', but with wildcards, I found an entry under 'Cabery', which fit perfectly with the regional accent. Her mother's maiden name was given as 'McNally', which matches the surname of a witness at her marriage.


From the Cabery/McNally pairing in Belfast, I was subsequently able to find two brothers and a sister, as well as the 1911 marriage. However, I was able to go no further, as there were a number of possibilities for the births and parentage of Elder's grandparents Joseph Cabery/Carberry and Mary McNally.


It is time to interrogate the DNA matches. Filtering by clusters #1 and #3 (which is the third-largest in size and also contains many Irish surnames) gives a large number of names that close connections can be expected of. The top six or so have little to no information, but I have noted in my initial pass that four of the six below that all make mention of the surname 'Carson' in their ancestry.


Fortune smiles, as 'Carson' is a name that rings a bell. One of the possibilities for Joseph Cabery's birth was with a mother's maiden name of Carson. This next step uses speculation to build a theory which then must be proven before it can become accepted. When faced with brick walls in research, it is often the only way that progress can be made.

However, it is also dangerous; many genealogists, myself included, will publish working theories online as part of their ever-growing trees. A few genealogists will make mention in comments on the individual that they are just a working theory, though many more will not, and propagation of unverified information across genealogical websites is stunningly fast - it can be a mere matter of weeks before half a dozen other trees are taking your theory as fact. The trade-off is invaluable though; by putting theories out there, you invite connections. Studious genealogists can make contact either confirming or debating your theory and, by collaborating with different approaches, you can often find a way forward (well, backward), or at the very least agree on the dead-end you are at. It is a responsible and humble genealogist who then goes on to contact others who have propagated one of their disproven theories, offering an apology and an evidence-based correction. Better that, than remaining stumped in solitude, I would say.


On to Carson, then. Firstly, a new unconnected tree can be built within the Ancestry tree space that details all of the Cabery/Carson children. There seem to be four between 1889 and 1894, with the last dying in infancy, leaving three brothers. A marriage of 1888 seems a good fit and is backed up by the Ireland 1901 and 1911 censuses which mention the whole family. The mother was born Caroline Carson, around 1866 in Armagh. This birth record is found, with parents Moses Carson and Mary Lockhart.


It is Moses Carson and Mary Lockhart which then appear as the Carson references in the DNA matches. At this point, I have high confidence that the family I have constructed are ancestors of Elder, so I connect them so they are now linked to the DNA results.


Within a day, before I can create the graphics and descendancy sheets, a fellow genealogist has contacted me - one of the DNA links I had identified as a descendant of Moses Carson and Mary Lockhart. Together we were able to confirm and grow both sides of our family descended from this pair, which in turn has enabled me to link to the shared DNA matches in the cluster.

Initial descendants of Moses Carson & Mary Lockhart

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